We are closely monitoring a system that is likely to bring severe weather to Georgia on Saturday and early Sunday morning. The first round could bring isolated severe thunderstorms to Northwestern Georgia. This will be followed by a brief lull until the evening time period where discrete cells will fire in a broad warm sector bringing a tornado, hail, and damaging wind threat. Then heading into the overnight hours, a line of severe thunderstorms will bring a Tornado and Severe Damaging Wind Threat. All modes of severe weather are likely!
SATURDAY MORNING
Ahead of the main severe threat, a few scattered thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning. Questions still remain on the severity of these storms, which will be determined by how conducive surface conditions are that morning. We will be closely monitoring these storms as our highest resolution models come into range, and provide updates as we know more. The Storm Prediction Center has currently issued a Marginal Risk (Level ⅕) for severe weather in far Northwest Georgia for the predawn hours on Saturday.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
The main severe threat will first reach the Northwest Georgia/ Alabama border late Saturday afternoon. This region is where we are most likely to see discrete cells ahead of the main line of thunderstorms, but confidence in the prevalence of these cells is still low. Once again, as our high resolution models come into range through the rest of this week, we will be able to provide more data on storm mode.
The following line of storms will move through after dark, and still carry a significant severe threat. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 30% risk for severe weather for western and north-central Georgia, including the metro area. Further south and east is a 15% risk for severe weather, notably including Athens, Augusta, and Macon. Current guidance suggests all hazards are on the table for both risk areas: damaging winds, hail, localized flash flooding, and tornadoes.
WHAT YOU CAN DO NOW:
Unlike the 2-3 overnight severe weather threats Georgia has seen over the past few months, the Saturday night’s environment is expected to be much more potent. Instability and moisture are much more prevalent across North Georgia, and when combined with strong wind shear, have the potential to create significant severe weather. We point this out to emphasize the need for all Georgians to take this risk seriously, starting now. You do not want to wait until the last minute to prepare for storms.
Now is the time to make sure you have a reliable way of receiving watches and warnings. This includes local broadcast meteorologists, the National Weather Service, NOAA Weather Radios, the WeatherDawgs, and more. Because the main threat will move through overnight, it is crucial that your method of receiving information is loud enough to wake you up. You should also take the time to review your Severe Weather Safety Plan. Know where you would take shelter in the event a warning is issued (lowest level of your home, in a room with no exterior walls), or where the closest community storm shelter is. Be prepared for power outages as well.
As we gather more data in the coming days, we will continue to provide more detailed updates. Stay safe Dawg Nation!
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